PSG 3-1 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 15 Dec 2024

PSG
3-1 HT 2-1
Lyon
📅15/12/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

PSG vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
22%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.96
Over 2.5
58%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.55
No
47%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
6.59
2-3 Goals
39%
2.13
4-5 Goals
26%
2.42
6+ Goals
13%
4.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
18.2
X/1
13%
3.92
X/2
8%
14.7
X/X
13%
8.39
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
18.75
2/2
9%
9.63
2/X
4%
18.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 18.75 — our 10% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
66%
-13.7pp
25%
Draw
19%
+6.3pp
22%
Away Win
15%
+7.4pp
42%
Under 2.5
30%
+12.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
70%
-12.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.8pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

PSG v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 18%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +17% / +15%
2.01/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.65
+15% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +15%
59% Ball Possession 41%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
470 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 78%
31.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.5
15.9 Crosses 14.0
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

PSG vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Lyon
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
2.33 xG 1.29
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
692 Passes 315
92% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 28
13 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
25.05.2024 Lyon Lyon 1-2 HT 0-2 PSG PSG FRK
21.04.2024 PSG PSG 4-1 HT 4-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
03.09.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-4 HT 0-4 PSG PSG FR1
02.04.2023 PSG PSG 0-1 HT 0-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
18.09.2022 Lyon Lyon 0-1 HT 0-1 PSG PSG FR1
09.01.2022 Lyon Lyon 1-1 HT 1-0 PSG PSG FR1

PSG 3-1 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
3-1
AWAY Lyon
2.88 xG 1.46
68% Ball Possession 32%
13 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
672 Passes 279
92% Pass Accuracy 82%
31 Box Touches 25
13 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH PSG vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

PSG beat Lyon 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had PSG as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, PSG had 68% of the ball to Lyon's 32%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 2.88 to 1.46.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSG and 0.83 for Lyon.

What was the final score of PSG vs Lyon?

PSG 3-1 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 15/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split PSG 53%, draw 25%, Lyon 22%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (PSG), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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