Fluminense 1-0 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 15 Dec 2025

📅15/12/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.64
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
23%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.77
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.06
6+ Goals
9%
19.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.77 — our 31% vs market 29.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.16
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
16.0
X/1
19%
3.97
X/2
6%
10.2
X/X
12%
4.8
2/1
10%
26.0
2/2
12%
8.99
2/X
5%
18.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ Under 2.5 ★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
57%
-5.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+0.1pp
23%
Away Win
18%
+5.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.1pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.9pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 21%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -11%
1.58/0.44 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.96
+21% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / +17%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
415 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 267 · 76%
24.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.7
25.8 Crosses 21.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.02 xG 1.31
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
425 Passes 326
86% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 15
22 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
12.12.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-1 HT 0-1 Fluminense Fluminense BRK
21.10.2025 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
25.05.2025 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-1 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
11.08.2024 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 2-0 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
20.04.2024 Fluminense Fluminense 2-1 HT 1-0 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama BR1
16.09.2023 Vasco da Gama Vasco da Gama 4-2 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
1-0
AWAY Vasco da Gama
0.91 xG 0.64
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 9
271 Passes 301
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
18 Box Touches 9
14 Crosses 21
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense edged past Vasco da Gama 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fluminense had 47% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 53%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 0.91 to 0.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vasco da Gama led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fluminense and 2.00 for Vasco da Gama.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?

Fluminense 1-0 Vasco da Gama in the Brazil - Cup on 15/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 52%, draw 25%, Vasco da Gama 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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