Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Cup, 15 Dec 2025

Corinthians
1-2 HT 0-1
Cruzeiro
📅15/12/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Brazil - Cup – 2025

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.84
Draw
32%
2.88
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.54
Over 2.5
37%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.36
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
16%
4.91
6+ Goals
8%
29.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.36 — our 37% vs market 35.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
4.72
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
16%
6.19
X/2
16%
5.31
X/X
13%
3.66
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
11%
3.72
2/X
10%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
32%
+1.3pp
31%
Draw
31%
+0.2pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.5pp
63%
Under 2.5
61%
+2.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
39%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.4pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Corinthians v Cruzeiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 40%
+25% / +25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +15% / +15%
1.34/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/0.83
+30% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +110% / +111%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
313 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 350 · 81%
12.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.2
14.8 Crosses 18.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.2

Corinthians vs Cruzeiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.15 xG 1.30
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
325 Passes 351
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
11.12.2025 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-1 HT 0-1 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
24.11.2025 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
24.07.2025 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
20.11.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 2-1 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
07.07.2024 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 3-0 HT 2-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
20.08.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-1 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1

Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
1-2
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.92 xG 0.97
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 5
11 Corners 4
261 Passes 305
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
33 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 16
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cruzeiro nicked a narrow win over Corinthians 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (33% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Cruzeiro found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Corinthians had 48% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 52%, shots finished 14-9, expected goals 0.92 to 0.97.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Corinthians and 1.33 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?

Corinthians 1-2 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Cup on 15/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cruzeiro win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 33%, draw 31%, Cruzeiro 35%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cruzeiro) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cruzeiro) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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