Toluca 2-1 Tigres UANL — Maç Sonucu, İstatistikler ve Maç Analizi — Mexico - Primera, 15 Dec 2025

Toluca WDLWL→
2 - 1 HT 1 - 1 AET 2-1 · Pen 9-8
Tigres UANL LWDDW→
📅15/12/2025 · 🕒04:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 3-1 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2025/2026

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Authentic Intelligence™ · Probability per market
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off. · updated 18:34
Match Result
HomeVIEW
64%
1.54
Draw
21%
3.95
Away
15%
4.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under
46%
1.97
Over
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.82
No
48%
1.87
Total Goals
0-1
24%
3.62
2-3
46%
1.8
4-5
24%
3.11
6+
6%
10.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
40%
1.96
1/2
1%
35.0
1/X
5%
15.55
X/1
20%
4.11
X/2
6%
11.35
X/X
13%
5.8
2/1
3%
22.25
2/2
8%
9.2
2/X
4%
17.6
NO PICK no pattern fills on this match today.
VIEW our model view: the outcome it rates most likely. A forecast, not a pick.

Toluca v Tigres UANL — Team-Based Signals

SIGNALS Team Signals — the why behind the numbers
iddaakolik predictions — not real match figures
HOME Toluca The Market 65%
Signal
AWAY Tigres UANL The Market 20%
Average Team Performanceagainst Market Expectation Average
2.33 xG Scorediddaakolik model prediction 0.80
1.00 xG Concedediddaakolik model prediction 1.69
Great Attack Strength Average
Weak Defense Strength Average
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
303 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 271 · 77%
25 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14
16 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toluca
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tigres UANL
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.59 xG 0.96
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
373 Passes 318
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
12.12.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-0 HT 0-0 Toluca Toluca MEK
27.07.2025 Toluca Toluca 3-4 HT 1-3 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
18.05.2025 Toluca Toluca 3-0 HT 1-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
15.05.2025 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 1-1 HT 1-1 Toluca Toluca MEK
02.02.2025 Toluca Toluca 1-0 HT 0-0 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL MEK
07.11.2024 Tigres UANL Tigres UANL 2-1 HT 1-0 Toluca Toluca MEK

Toluca 2-1 Tigres UANL — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toluca
2 - 1
AWAY Tigres UANL
2.97 xG 0.44
67% Ball Possession 33%
31 Total Shots 7
12 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 5
540 Passes 206
83% Pass Accuracy 64%
30 Box Touches 16
29 Crosses 10
4 Yellow Cards 3
REVIEW Toluca vs Tigres UANL
IDDAAKOLIK POST-MATCH REVIEW

Toluca nicked a narrow win over Tigres UANL 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Toluca as the likeliest winner at 64%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

No strong lean on goals — the model had over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 52%, coin-flips both.

Under the surface, Toluca had 67% of the ball to Tigres UANL's 33%, shots finished 31-7, expected goals 2.97 to 0.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Toluca's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tigres UANL led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Toluca and 1.33 for Tigres UANL.

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Result & Final Score

Toluca 2 - 1 Tigres UANL in the Mexico - Primera on 15/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

Toluca vs Tigres UANL Prediction vs Result

Before kick-off our model rated a Toluca win the most likely single outcome at about 64%, with the full match-result split Toluca 64%, draw 21%, Tigres UANL 15%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Toluca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Toluca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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