Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Luton Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 16 Jan 2024

Bolton Wanderers
1-2 HT 1-1
Luton Town
📅16/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Bolton Wanderers vs Luton Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.67
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
31%
2.24
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.95
Over 2.5
54%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.66
No
46%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.55
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.34
6+ Goals
10%
12.3
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.34 — our 26% vs market 24.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
4.23
1/2
7%
25.5
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
14%
6.2
X/2
12%
5.04
X/X
12%
4.76
2/1 EV+ ✗
14%
30.5
2/2
12%
3.17
2/X
8%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 30.5 — our 14% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
34%
+9.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
31%
Away Win
40%
-9.3pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-1.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+1.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-1.9pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bolton Wanderers v Luton Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bolton Wanderers EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Luton Town EU Bookmakers 45%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +34% / +34%
0.86/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.24/0.58
-40% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +141%
50% Ball Possession 50%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
292 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 72%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 1.4

Bolton Wanderers vs Luton Town Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bolton Wanderers
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Luton Town
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
0.48 xG 1.12
37% Ball Possession 63%
7 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 11
211 Passes 411
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 39
9 Crosses 38
0 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
07.01.2024 Luton Town Luton Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Bolton Wanderers Bolton Wanderers FAK

Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Luton Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bolton Wanderers
1-2
AWAY Luton Town
1.37 xG 1.92
43% Ball Possession 57%
17 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 9
269 Passes 392
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
19 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Bolton Wanderers vs Luton Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Luton Town squeezed past Bolton Wanderers 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Bolton Wanderers at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Bolton Wanderers had 43% of the ball to Luton Town's 57%, shots finished 17-16, expected goals 1.37 to 1.92.

What was the final score of Bolton Wanderers vs Luton Town?

Bolton Wanderers 1-2 Luton Town in the England - FA Cup on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bolton Wanderers vs Luton Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bolton Wanderers win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Bolton Wanderers 43%, draw 26%, Luton Town 31%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Bolton Wanderers) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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