Eastleigh 1-3 Newport County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 16 Jan 2024

Eastleigh
1-3 HT 0-1
Newport County
📅16/01/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Eastleigh vs Newport County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
33%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.33
Over 2.5
52%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.49
No
49%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.65
2-3 Goals
39%
1.89
4-5 Goals
24%
2.79
6+ Goals
11%
7.7
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.65 — our 26% vs market 16.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.67
1/2
6%
24.3
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
16%
6.05
X/2
11%
5.62
X/X
9%
5.36
2/1
9%
25.5
2/2
16%
3.3
2/X
8%
12.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
36%
+6.9pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
32%
Away Win
38%
-5.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
39%
+9.5pp
52%
Over 2.5
61%
-9.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
63%
-11.7pp
49%
BTTS No
37%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Eastleigh v Newport County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eastleigh EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Newport County EU Bookmakers 43%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
3.48/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.77/0.90
+144% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -51% / +55%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 6
374 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 266 · 70%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.0
– Crosses 18.0
1.0 Yellow Cards 2.0

Eastleigh vs Newport County Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eastleigh
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Newport County
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
40% Ball Possession 60%
4 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 9
5 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
06.01.2024 Newport County Newport County 1-1 HT 0-0 Eastleigh Eastleigh FAK

Eastleigh 1-3 Newport County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eastleigh
1-3
AWAY Newport County
48% Ball Possession 52%
5 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 6
0 Corners 6
POST-MATCH Eastleigh vs Newport County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County saw off Eastleigh 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Eastleigh at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Eastleigh had 48% of the ball to Newport County's 52%, shots finished 5-11.

What was the final score of Eastleigh vs Newport County?

Eastleigh 1-3 Newport County in the England - FA Cup on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eastleigh vs Newport County?

Before kick-off our model rated a Eastleigh win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Eastleigh 43%, draw 24%, Newport County 32%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Eastleigh) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Eastleigh) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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