Wolverhampton 3-2 Brentford — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 16 Jan 2024

📅16/01/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.0
Draw
24%
3.28
Away
33%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.78
Over 2.5
52%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.03
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.8
6+ Goals
11%
16.6
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.77
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.3
X/1
11%
4.45
X/2
11%
7.16
X/X
11%
4.39
2/1
12%
26.0
2/2
17%
5.42
2/X
7%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
-3.4pp
24%
Draw
27%
-3.2pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+6.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.0pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Wolverhampton EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Brentford EU Bookmakers 30%
-25% / -25% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -36% / -36%
0.82/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.46
-73% / +91% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -56%
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
348 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 69%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
18.0 Crosses 13.2
1.4 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Wolverhampton
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Brentford
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.84 xG 1.64
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
306 Passes 382
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 30
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
05.01.2024 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 1-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton FAK
27.12.2023 Brentford Brentford 1-4 HT 1-3 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
15.04.2023 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 2-0 HT 1-0 Brentford Brentford İNP
29.10.2022 Brentford Brentford 1-1 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
22.01.2022 Brentford Brentford 1-2 HT 0-0 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton İNP
18.09.2021 Wolverhampton Wolverhampton 0-2 HT 0-2 Brentford Brentford İNP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Wolverhampton
3-2
AWAY Brentford
4.21 xG 2.17
59% Ball Possession 41%
25 Total Shots 14
12 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
572 Passes 338
82% Pass Accuracy 70%
28 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Wolverhampton vs Brentford
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Wolverhampton squeezed past Brentford 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Wolverhampton as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Wolverhampton had 59% of the ball to Brentford's 41%, shots finished 25-14, expected goals 4.21 to 2.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Wolverhampton's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Wolverhampton had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Wolverhampton and 1.00 for Brentford.

What was the final score of Wolverhampton vs Brentford?

Wolverhampton 3-2 Brentford in the England - FA Cup on 16/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Wolverhampton vs Brentford?

Before kick-off our model rated a Wolverhampton win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Wolverhampton 43%, draw 24%, Brentford 33%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wolverhampton), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Wolverhampton) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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