Montpellier 1-4 Lyon — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 16 Feb 2025

Montpellier
1-4 HT 1-1
Lyon
📅16/02/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2024/2025

Montpellier vs Lyon Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
4.48
Draw
26%
4.08
Away
51%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
60%
1.55
No
40%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
18%
5.31
2-3 Goals
42%
1.99
4-5 Goals
28%
2.58
6+ Goals
12%
6.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
7.85
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
18.85
1/X
7%
16.05
X/1
7%
11.05
X/2
14%
4.35
X/X
11%
6.87
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
26%
1.91
2/X
8%
14.55
Value flag · 1/2 at 18.85 — our 11% vs market 2.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★★ BTTS Yes ★★ Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
20%
+3.1pp
26%
Draw
22%
+4.5pp
51%
Away Win
59%
-7.6pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+3.3pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-3.3pp
60%
BTTS Yes
60%
-0.5pp
40%
BTTS No
40%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Montpellier v Lyon — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montpellier EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY Lyon EU Bookmakers 62%
+1% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / +6%
1.21/1.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/1.18
-20% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -8%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
290 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 83%
17.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.1
17.8 Crosses 15.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.9

Montpellier vs Lyon Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montpellier
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Lyon
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.84 xG 2.36
40% Ball Possession 60%
13 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
289 Passes 460
80% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 38
16 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
04.01.2025 Lyon Lyon 1-0 HT 0-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
11.02.2024 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 1-0 Lyon Lyon FR1
19.08.2023 Lyon Lyon 1-4 HT 0-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
07.05.2023 Lyon Lyon 5-4 HT 1-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
22.10.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-1 Lyon Lyon FR1
23.04.2022 Lyon Lyon 5-2 HT 2-2 Montpellier Montpellier FR1

Montpellier 1-4 Lyon — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montpellier
1-4
AWAY Lyon
1.40 xG 1.01
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
252 Passes 494
80% Pass Accuracy 88%
27 Box Touches 18
25 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montpellier vs Lyon
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon swept aside Montpellier 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Lyon as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (60%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Montpellier had 37% of the ball to Lyon's 63%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 1.40 to 1.01.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lyon led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Montpellier and 2.67 for Lyon.

What was the final score of Montpellier vs Lyon?

Montpellier 1-4 Lyon in the France - Ligue 1 on 16/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montpellier vs Lyon?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Montpellier 23%, draw 26%, Lyon 51%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lyon), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lyon) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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