Chelmsford City 3-1 Bath City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.05
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.78
Over 2.5
45%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.04
2-3 Goals
41%
1.78
4-5 Goals
18%
3.83
6+ Goals
10%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
19%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
45%
-2.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
31%
Away Win
28%
+3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
52%
+2.5pp
45%
Over 2.5
48%
-2.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.7pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chelmsford City EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Bath City EU Bookmakers 32%
+1% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +10%
1.43/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.45
-8% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
314 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 229 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chelmsford City
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Bath City
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
02.12.2023 Bath City Bath City 2-3 HT 2-1 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
04.02.2023 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 0-2 HT 0-1 Bath City Bath City İCON
01.11.2022 Bath City Bath City 0-1 HT 0-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
08.01.2022 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City 1-0 HT 1-0 Bath City Bath City İCON
28.08.2021 Bath City Bath City 1-2 HT 0-1 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City İCON
15.12.2020 Bath City Bath City 3-2 HT 1-0 Chelmsford City Chelmsford City FAK
POST-MATCH Chelmsford City vs Bath City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelmsford City got the better of Bath City 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Chelmsford City as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Chelmsford City had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chelmsford City and 1.33 for Bath City.

What was the final score of Chelmsford City vs Bath City?

Chelmsford City 3-1 Bath City in the England - Conference on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chelmsford City vs Bath City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chelmsford City win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Chelmsford City 43%, draw 26%, Bath City 31%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelmsford City) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chelmsford City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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