Chorley 3-0 Scarborough Athletic — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.54
Away
27%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.63
No
51%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.89
2-3 Goals
41%
1.84
4-5 Goals
20%
3.16
6+ Goals
10%
10.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.89 — our 29% vs market 20.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
10%
2/2
11%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
49%
-0.1pp
24%
Draw
25%
-0.8pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.1pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.1pp
49%
BTTS Yes
57%
-8.5pp
51%
BTTS No
43%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chorley EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Scarborough Athletic EU Bookmakers 30%
+6% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +9%
2.27/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.28/1.55
+36% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
373 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chorley
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Scarborough Athletic
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
51% Ball Possession 49%
18 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 1
18.11.2023 Chorley Chorley 1-0 HT 0-0 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic FAK
07.11.2023 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 1-1 HT 0-1 Chorley Chorley İCON
10.04.2023 Chorley Chorley 2-3 HT 2-1 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic İCON
13.09.2022 Scarborough Athletic Scarborough Athletic 3-2 HT 0-0 Chorley Chorley İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chorley
3-0
AWAY Scarborough Athletic
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chorley ran out comfortable winners over Scarborough Athletic 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Chorley as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Chorley had 42% of the ball to Scarborough Athletic's 58%, shots finished 10-8.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Scarborough Athletic led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Chorley and 1.75 for Scarborough Athletic.

What was the final score of Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?

Chorley 3-0 Scarborough Athletic in the England - Conference on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chorley vs Scarborough Athletic?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chorley win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Chorley 48%, draw 24%, Scarborough Athletic 27%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chorley), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Chorley) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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