Farnborough 3-1 Aveley — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Conference, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
1.96
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
36%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.8
Over 2.5
55%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.76
No
46%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
3.16
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.7
6+ Goals
9%
15.5
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.7 — our 28% vs market 21.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
6%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
47%
-6.8pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.3pp
36%
Away Win
26%
+9.0pp
45%
Under 2.5
52%
-6.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
48%
+6.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
53%
+0.9pp
46%
BTTS No
47%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Farnborough EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Aveley EU Bookmakers 30%
+5% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
1.74/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.25/1.34
+13% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / +14%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Farnborough
1W-0D-0L
AWAY Aveley
4.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
57% Ball Possession 43%
20 Total Shots 11
12 Shots on Target 7
10 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
02.12.2023 Aveley Aveley 3-4 HT 1-1 Farnborough Farnborough İCON
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Farnborough
3-1
AWAY Aveley
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Farnborough vs Aveley
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Farnborough saw off Aveley 3-1. Half-time: 2-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 24% / 36% — and on the day Farnborough made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%) came in.

On the day, Farnborough had 53% of the ball to Aveley's 47%, shots finished 15-7.

What was the final score of Farnborough vs Aveley?

Farnborough 3-1 Aveley in the England - Conference on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Farnborough vs Aveley?

Before kick-off our model rated a Farnborough win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Farnborough 40%, draw 24%, Aveley 36%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Farnborough), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Farnborough) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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