Cittadella 1-1 Modena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 16 Mar 2024

Cittadella
1-1 HT 1-1
Modena
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Italy - Serie B – 2023/2024

Cittadella vs Modena Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
27%
2.88
Away
34%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.56
Over 2.5
50%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.96
No
47%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
5.03
6+ Goals
9%
30.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
4.44
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.5
X/1
13%
5.81
X/2
13%
5.14
X/X
15%
3.6
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
34.5
2/2
15%
3.74
2/X
6%
13.35
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 10% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
32%
+6.9pp
27%
Draw
31%
-4.3pp
34%
Away Win
36%
-2.4pp
50%
Under 2.5
60%
-10.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
40%
+10.4pp
53%
BTTS Yes
47%
+5.8pp
47%
BTTS No
53%
-5.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cittadella v Modena — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cittadella EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Modena EU Bookmakers 40%
-10% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +17%
1.19/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.44/0.90
-5% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / +3%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
272 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
22.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
23.2 Crosses 18.8
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.9

Cittadella vs Modena Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cittadella
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Modena
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.37 xG 0.81
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
281 Passes 250
72% Pass Accuracy 67%
23 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
16.12.2023 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 1-1 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
02.04.2023 Modena Modena 0-0 HT 0-0 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
05.11.2022 Cittadella Cittadella 0-0 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB
17.01.2015 Cittadella Cittadella 1-1 HT 0-1 Modena Modena İTB
01.09.2014 Modena Modena 1-1 HT 0-1 Cittadella Cittadella İTB
08.02.2014 Cittadella Cittadella 0-1 HT 0-0 Modena Modena İTB

Cittadella 1-1 Modena — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cittadella
1-1
AWAY Modena
0.64 xG 1.26
55% Ball Possession 45%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
300 Passes 235
70% Pass Accuracy 65%
17 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cittadella vs Modena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cittadella and Modena couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Cittadella had 55% of the ball to Modena's 45%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.64 to 1.26.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Modena led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Cittadella and 0.67 for Modena.

What was the final score of Cittadella vs Modena?

Cittadella 1-1 Modena in the Italy - Serie B on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cittadella vs Modena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cittadella win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Cittadella 39%, draw 27%, Modena 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cittadella) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cittadella) ✓ BTTS Yes
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