Ternana 1-0 Cosenza Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.11
Away
32%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
34%
2.75
2-3 Goals
39%
1.77
4-5 Goals
18%
4.24
6+ Goals
9%
21.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.75 — our 34% vs market 30.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.05
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
21%
4.62
X/2
8%
6.69
X/X
11%
4.07
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
17%
5.15
2/X
8%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
43%
-2.7pp
28%
Draw
29%
-0.8pp
32%
Away Win
28%
+3.5pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-6.1pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ternana EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Cosenza Calcio EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / -1%
1.27/1.16 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.38
-19% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 77%
22.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.4
20.0 Crosses 21.5
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ternana
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Cosenza Calcio
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.51 xG 1.10
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
279 Passes 288
74% Pass Accuracy 75%
26 Box Touches 19
21 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 3
02.12.2023 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio 1-3 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
04.02.2023 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio 0-0 HT 0-0 Ternana Ternana İTB
03.09.2022 Ternana Ternana 1-1 HT 1-0 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio İTB
12.03.2022 Ternana Ternana 2-0 HT 2-0 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio İTB
27.10.2021 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio 3-1 HT 2-1 Ternana Ternana İTB
05.04.2003 Cosenza Calcio Cosenza Calcio 0-3 HT 0-1 Ternana Ternana İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ternana
1-0
AWAY Cosenza Calcio
1.03 xG 1.43
46% Ball Possession 54%
17 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 7
9 Corners 6
262 Passes 340
70% Pass Accuracy 76%
37 Box Touches 17
27 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ternana vs Cosenza Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ternana edged past Cosenza Calcio 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ternana as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (57%) came in.

On the day, Ternana had 46% of the ball to Cosenza Calcio's 54%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.03 to 1.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ternana had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ternana and 0.83 for Cosenza Calcio.

What was the final score of Ternana vs Cosenza Calcio?

Ternana 1-0 Cosenza Calcio in the Italy - Serie B on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ternana vs Cosenza Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ternana win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ternana 41%, draw 28%, Cosenza Calcio 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ternana), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ternana) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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