Pontedera 2-1 SPAL — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
32%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.6
Over 2.5
43%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.95
No
55%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.51
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.71
6+ Goals
9%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
18%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
40%
-1.1pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.0pp
32%
Away Win
32%
+0.0pp
57%
Under 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
43%
Over 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.8pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontedera EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY SPAL EU Bookmakers 36%
+7% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.45/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.74/0.76
+19% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / +53%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
308 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontedera
2W-0D-0L
AWAY SPAL
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.11.2023 SPAL SPAL 0-1 HT 0-0 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
10.01.2015 Pontedera Pontedera 2-1 HT 1-0 SPAL SPAL İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pontedera
2-1
AWAY SPAL
60% Ball Possession 40%
20 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Pontedera vs SPAL
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pontedera squeezed past SPAL 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 29% / 32% — and on the day Pontedera made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pontedera had 60% of the ball to SPAL's 40%, shots finished 20-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pontedera had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pontedera and 0.50 for SPAL.

What was the final score of Pontedera vs SPAL?

Pontedera 2-1 SPAL in the Italy - Serie C on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontedera vs SPAL?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pontedera win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pontedera 39%, draw 29%, SPAL 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pontedera) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pontedera) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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