Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Viktoria Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 16 Mar 2024

📅16/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
35%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
4.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.85
4-5 Goals
23%
3.05
6+ Goals
10%
9.69
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.12 — our 25% vs market 19.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.92
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
7%
12.8
X/1
11%
4.96
X/2
11%
6.7
X/X
14%
5.18
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
18%
4.44
2/X
5%
13.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
44%
-5.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+4.5pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.1pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Erzgebirge Aue EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY Viktoria Köln EU Bookmakers 34%
-4% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / -8%
1.27/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.51
-20% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / -3%
48% Ball Possession 52%
13 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
343 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
Crosses 9.4
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Viktoria Köln
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
14.10.2023 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln 2-2 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
29.04.2023 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue 1-1 HT 0-1 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln AL3
05.11.2022 Viktoria Köln Viktoria Köln 3-0 HT 0-0 Erzgebirge Aue Erzgebirge Aue AL3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Erzgebirge Aue
2-1
AWAY Viktoria Köln
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Erzgebirge Aue vs Viktoria Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Erzgebirge Aue edged past Viktoria Köln 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Erzgebirge Aue made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Erzgebirge Aue had 62% of the ball to Viktoria Köln's 38%, shots finished 21-7.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Viktoria Köln led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Erzgebirge Aue and 2.00 for Viktoria Köln.

What was the final score of Erzgebirge Aue vs Viktoria Köln?

Erzgebirge Aue 2-1 Viktoria Köln in the Germany - 3rd Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Erzgebirge Aue vs Viktoria Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated a Erzgebirge Aue win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Erzgebirge Aue 39%, draw 26%, Viktoria Köln 35%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Erzgebirge Aue) ✗ Under 2.5
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