MSV Duisburg 2-0 Saarbrücken — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 3rd Division, 16 Mar 2024

MSV Duisburg
2-0 HT 1-0
Saarbrücken
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Germany - 3rd Division – 2023/2024

MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrücken Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.29
Draw
31%
3.45
Away
42%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.75
No
48%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.33
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
26%
3.55
6+ Goals
10%
14.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.48
1/2
7%
24.45
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
8%
7.37
X/2
10%
4.41
X/X
14%
4.76
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.67
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
13.65
Value flag · 2/X at 13.65 — our 10% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
27%
-0.6pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.4pp
42%
Away Win
47%
-4.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.4pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

MSV Duisburg v Saarbrücken — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME MSV Duisburg EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Saarbrücken EU Bookmakers 51%
-22% / -33% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +23% / +23%
1.17/2.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.73/0.88
+1% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +60% / +23%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
275 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 75%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.0

MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrücken Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME MSV Duisburg
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Saarbrücken
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
3 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.11.2023 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 0-0 HT 0-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
21.05.2023 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 2-2 HT 2-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
14.01.2023 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-3 HT 0-2 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
23.01.2022 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg 3-4 HT 0-1 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken AL3
14.08.2021 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 2-0 HT 2-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
03.03.2021 Saarbrücken Saarbrücken 4-1 HT 1-0 MSV Duisburg MSV Duisburg AL3
POST-MATCH MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrücken
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MSV Duisburg got the better of Saarbrücken 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Saarbrücken at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Saarbrücken led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for MSV Duisburg and 2.33 for Saarbrücken.

What was the final score of MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrücken?

MSV Duisburg 2-0 Saarbrücken in the Germany - 3rd Division on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for MSV Duisburg vs Saarbrücken?

Before kick-off our model rated an Saarbrücken win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split MSV Duisburg 27%, draw 31%, Saarbrücken 42%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Saarbrücken), BTTS Yes went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Saarbrücken) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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