Baglan Dragons 2-0 Abergavenny Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Wales - FAW Championship, 16 Mar 2024

Baglan Dragons
2-0 HT 1-0
Abergavenny Town
📅16/03/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Wales - FAW Championship – 2023/2024

Baglan Dragons vs Abergavenny Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
65%
1.27
Draw
24%
5.71
Away
11%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.51
Over 2.5
62%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
15%
2-3 Goals
46%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1/2
3%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
3%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
5%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
65%
Home Win
75%
-10.0pp
24%
Draw
15%
+8.6pp
11%
Away Win
10%
+1.4pp
38%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.1pp
62%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.1pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Baglan Dragons v Abergavenny Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Baglan Dragons EU Bookmakers 79%
Head to Head
AWAY Abergavenny Town EU Bookmakers 12%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
– / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / -24%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 7
7 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
419 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.0
POST-MATCH Baglan Dragons vs Abergavenny Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Baglan Dragons got the better of Abergavenny Town 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Baglan Dragons as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (62%) — went the other way, though.

What was the final score of Baglan Dragons vs Abergavenny Town?

Baglan Dragons 2-0 Abergavenny Town in the Wales - FAW Championship on 16/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Baglan Dragons vs Abergavenny Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Baglan Dragons win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Baglan Dragons 65%, draw 24%, Abergavenny Town 11%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Baglan Dragons) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Baglan Dragons) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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