Ceske Budejovice 2-3 Karvina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Czech Republic - Czech Liga, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.17
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
44%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.29
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
24%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
12.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.29 — our 25% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
6%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
25%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
28%
+1.6pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.1pp
44%
Away Win
45%
-1.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ceske Budejovice EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Karvina EU Bookmakers 49%
+8% / +23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +25% / +25%
1.35/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/0.00
+23% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% /
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
306 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 79%
26.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
22.2 Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ceske Budejovice
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Karvina
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.96 xG 1.29
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 7
5 Corners 8
278 Passes 223
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
24 Box Touches 23
14 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 2
20.10.2024 Karvina Karvina 4-1 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice ÇEK
25.05.2024 Karvina Karvina 1-0 HT 1-0 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice ÇEK
16.03.2024 Karvina Karvina 2-1 HT 1-1 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice ÇEK
07.10.2023 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice 1-0 HT 0-0 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
27.02.2022 Karvina Karvina 2-2 HT 1-0 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice ÇEK
25.09.2021 Ceske Budejovice Ceske Budejovice 3-1 HT 2-1 Karvina Karvina ÇEK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ceske Budejovice
2-3
AWAY Karvina
1.94 xG 3.44
27% Ball Possession 73%
13 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 4
81 Passes 379
50% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 32
15 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ceske Budejovice vs Karvina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karvina squeezed past Ceske Budejovice 3-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Karvina as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Ceske Budejovice had 27% of the ball to Karvina's 73%, shots finished 13-14, expected goals 1.94 to 3.44 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Karvina's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karvina led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Ceske Budejovice and 1.67 for Karvina.

What was the final score of Ceske Budejovice vs Karvina?

Ceske Budejovice 2-3 Karvina in the Czech Republic - Czech Liga on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ceske Budejovice vs Karvina?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karvina win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ceske Budejovice 30%, draw 26%, Karvina 44%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karvina) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Karvina) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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