Sevilla 0-1 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Primera Liga, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒18:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
32%
2.94
Away
30%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.56
Over 2.5
39%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.33
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.8
6+ Goals
9%
28.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.78
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
16%
5.27
X/2
11%
5.84
X/X
14%
3.7
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
12%
4.42
2/X
10%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 61%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.7pp
32%
Draw
31%
+1.5pp
30%
Away Win
32%
-2.3pp
61%
Under 2.5
60%
+0.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
40%
-0.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sevilla EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 36%
+4% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -2%
1.04/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.24
-5% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +0%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
19.2 Crosses 19.3
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sevilla
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.99 xG 1.28
54% Ball Possession 46%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
396 Passes 315
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 21
23 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
29.09.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 1-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
19.05.2024 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 2-0 HT 2-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
04.01.2024 Sevilla Sevilla 0-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
27.04.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-1 HT 0-0 Sevilla Sevilla İS1
08.10.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 1-1 HT 1-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
22.05.2022 Sevilla Sevilla 1-0 HT 0-0 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sevilla
0-1
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.55 xG 1.34
62% Ball Possession 38%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
422 Passes 225
82% Pass Accuracy 73%
15 Box Touches 13
12 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sevilla vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao squeezed past Sevilla 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (38% / 32% / 30%) promised a tight game; Athletic Bilbao found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Sevilla had 62% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 38%, shots finished 11-9, expected goals 0.55 to 1.34.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sevilla and 1.00 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Sevilla vs Athletic Bilbao?

Sevilla 0-1 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Primera Liga on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sevilla vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sevilla win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sevilla 38%, draw 32%, Athletic Bilbao 30%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Sevilla) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sevilla) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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