Xerez 2-0 UD San Fernando — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
26%
2.77
Away
30%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.4
No
55%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
36%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
18%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+2.8pp
26%
Draw
33%
-6.7pp
30%
Away Win
27%
+3.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
38%
+7.2pp
55%
BTTS No
62%
-7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Xerez EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY UD San Fernando EU Bookmakers 30%
-3% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +1%
0.97/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.07
-20% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / +13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
290 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Xerez
0W-0D-1L
AWAY UD San Fernando
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
51% Ball Possession 49%
5 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 6
03.11.2024 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando 1-0 HT 0-0 Xerez Xerez İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Xerez
2-0
AWAY UD San Fernando
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 3
6 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 2
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Xerez vs UD San Fernando
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Xerez got the better of UD San Fernando 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Xerez as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, Xerez had 54% of the ball to UD San Fernando's 46%, shots finished 16-3.

What was the final score of Xerez vs UD San Fernando?

Xerez 2-0 UD San Fernando in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Xerez vs UD San Fernando?

Before kick-off our model rated a Xerez win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Xerez 44%, draw 26%, UD San Fernando 30%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Xerez), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Xerez) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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