ACR Messina 0-1 Catania — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
44%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.6
Over 2.5
44%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.39
2-3 Goals
38%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
4.44
6+ Goals
9%
24.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
20%
X/X
11%
2/1
6%
2/2
17%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
30%
-1.5pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.0pp
44%
Away Win
42%
+1.5pp
56%
Under 2.5
59%
-2.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
41%
+2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.7pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Catania EU Bookmakers 46%
-4% / -6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -6%
1.01/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.07
-8% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -7%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
254 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ACR Messina
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Catania
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
46% Ball Possession 54%
9 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
03.11.2024 Catania Catania 0-0 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
14.04.2024 Catania Catania 1-0 HT 1-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTC
09.12.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-0 HT 0-0 Catania Catania İTC
04.10.2023 Catania Catania 2-1 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTCK
19.12.2021 ACR Messina ACR Messina 2-2 HT 1-0 Catania Catania İTC
15.11.2015 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-0 HT 0-0 Catania Catania İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ACR Messina
0-1
AWAY Catania
67% Ball Possession 33%
7 Total Shots 3
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH ACR Messina vs Catania
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Catania squeezed past ACR Messina 1-0 away from home.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Catania as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) came in.

On the day, ACR Messina had 67% of the ball to Catania's 33%, shots finished 7-3.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Catania led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for ACR Messina and 0.83 for Catania.

What was the final score of ACR Messina vs Catania?

ACR Messina 0-1 Catania in the Italy - Serie C on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ACR Messina vs Catania?

Before kick-off our model rated an Catania win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split ACR Messina 28%, draw 28%, Catania 44%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Catania), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Catania) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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