Catania 1-0 ACR Messina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.72
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
22%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.99
No
49%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.83
2-3 Goals
41%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.12
6+ Goals
8%
19.7
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
19%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
9%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
54%
-4.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+2.3pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
46%
+4.4pp
49%
BTTS No
54%
-4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Catania EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY ACR Messina EU Bookmakers 23%
-3% / -14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +7%
1.30/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.71/1.18
-19% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +15%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
411 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 250 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Catania
1W-4D-1L
AWAY ACR Messina
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 4
09.12.2023 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-0 HT 0-0 Catania Catania İTC
04.10.2023 Catania Catania 2-1 HT 0-0 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTCK
19.12.2021 ACR Messina ACR Messina 2-2 HT 1-0 Catania Catania İTC
15.11.2015 ACR Messina ACR Messina 0-0 HT 0-0 Catania Catania İTC
11.02.2007 ACR Messina ACR Messina 1-1 HT 1-0 Catania Catania İTA
23.09.2006 Catania Catania 2-2 HT 0-1 ACR Messina ACR Messina İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Catania
1-0
AWAY ACR Messina
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Catania vs ACR Messina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Catania edged past ACR Messina 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Catania as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Catania had 47% of the ball to ACR Messina's 53%, shots finished 12-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Catania and 1.17 for ACR Messina.

What was the final score of Catania vs ACR Messina?

Catania 1-0 ACR Messina in the Italy - Serie C on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Catania vs ACR Messina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Catania win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Catania 50%, draw 28%, ACR Messina 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Catania), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Catania) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İTC More Italy - Serie C
14 Apr 2024
15:00 Olbia 1905 vs Pescara Analysis →
15:00 GIANA Erminio vs Triestina Analysis →
15:00 Fermana vs Lucchese Analysis →
15:00 Pineto vs Juventus II Analysis →
17:15 Virtus Entella vs SPAL Analysis →
17:15 Ancona 1905 vs Sestri Levante Analysis →