Ancona 1905 3-1 Sestri Levante — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒17:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.82
Draw
24%
3.35
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.79
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.18
6+ Goals
8%
20.35
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.79 — our 30% vs market 29.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
18%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
51%
-4.6pp
24%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.4pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.8pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.2pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ancona 1905 EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY Sestri Levante EU Bookmakers 26%
+13% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
2.20/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.38
+51% / +29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / -11%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
392 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 260 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ancona 1905
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Sestri Levante
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 3.00
10.12.2023 Sestri Levante Sestri Levante 3-2 HT 0-2 Ancona 1905 Ancona 1905 İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ancona 1905
3-1
AWAY Sestri Levante
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 1
3 Corners 2
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ancona 1905 vs Sestri Levante
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ancona 1905 beat Sestri Levante 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Ancona 1905 as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ancona 1905 had 60% of the ball to Sestri Levante's 40%, shots finished 17-7.

What was the final score of Ancona 1905 vs Sestri Levante?

Ancona 1905 3-1 Sestri Levante in the Italy - Serie C on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ancona 1905 vs Sestri Levante?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ancona 1905 win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ancona 1905 46%, draw 24%, Sestri Levante 30%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ancona 1905) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ancona 1905) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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