Fermana 2-1 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 14 Apr 2024

📅14/04/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
2.99
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
38%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.68
Over 2.5
46%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.85
No
49%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.77
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.23
6+ Goals
8%
20.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
15%
2/1
5%
2/2
17%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
30%
+2.4pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.9pp
38%
Away Win
42%
-4.3pp
54%
Under 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
46%
Over 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
50%
+0.8pp
49%
BTTS No
50%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fermana EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 46%
+5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.06/1.05 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.01
-4% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
285 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fermana
1W-4D-0L
AWAY Lucchese
0.40 Avg Goals (FT) 0.20
50% Ball Possession 50%
4 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
4 Yellow Cards 4
10.12.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 0-0 HT 0-0 Fermana Fermana İTC
26.03.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 1-1 HT 0-0 Fermana Fermana İTC
26.11.2022 Fermana Fermana 1-0 HT 1-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
27.02.2022 Lucchese Lucchese 0-0 HT 0-0 Fermana Fermana İTC
19.10.2021 Fermana Fermana 0-0 HT 0-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fermana
2-1
AWAY Lucchese
51% Ball Possession 49%
17 Total Shots 5
3 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fermana vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fermana squeezed past Lucchese 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 32% / 30% / 38% — and on the day Fermana made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Fermana had 51% of the ball to Lucchese's 49%, shots finished 17-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Fermana had the better of it with 1 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.40 goals for Fermana and 0.20 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of Fermana vs Lucchese?

Fermana 2-1 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 14/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fermana vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lucchese win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Fermana 32%, draw 30%, Lucchese 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lucchese), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lucchese) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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