Vejle 3-2 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.65
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
49%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.8
Over 2.5
53%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.95
No
45%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.12
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.82
6+ Goals
9%
16.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.59
1/2
8%
24.3
1/X
7%
16.85
X/1
11%
10.15
X/2
14%
4.04
X/X
7%
4.91
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.11
2/X
12%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
19%
+5.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+1.2pp
49%
Away Win
56%
-6.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
52%
-5.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
48%
+5.0pp
55%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.8pp
45%
BTTS No
53%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vejle EU Bookmakers 22%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 60%
-14% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.16/1.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.93/0.87
-31% / -16% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +36%
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
264 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 383 · 80%
19.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
17.9 Crosses 23.0
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vejle
2W-2D-2L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.04 xG 1.42
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
214 Passes 414
69% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
19.08.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 5-1 HT 3-1 Vejle Vejle DAN
19.02.2024 Vejle Vejle 0-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
23.07.2023 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-0 HT 1-0 Vejle Vejle DAN
12.05.2022 Vejle Vejle 1-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
03.04.2022 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 0-0 HT 0-0 Vejle Vejle DAN
25.02.2022 Vejle Vejle 3-2 HT 2-2 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vejle
3-2
AWAY AGF Aarhus
1.58 xG 2.32
37% Ball Possession 63%
11 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 9
7 Corners 11
196 Passes 355
71% Pass Accuracy 78%
19 Box Touches 45
18 Crosses 41
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vejle vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vejle squeezed past AGF Aarhus 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was AGF Aarhus at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Vejle had 37% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 63%, shots finished 11-21, expected goals 1.58 to 2.32 — on chances, AGF Aarhus could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Vejle and 1.33 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of Vejle vs AGF Aarhus?

Vejle 3-2 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vejle vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated an AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Vejle 25%, draw 26%, AGF Aarhus 49%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (AGF Aarhus) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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