Ajax 2-2 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 16 Mar 2025

Ajax
2-2 HT 0-0
AZ Alkmaar
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒18:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eredivisie – 2025/2026

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
26%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.9
Over 2.5
54%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.81
No
45%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
29%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.4
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.44 — our 29% vs market 22.9%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.37
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.0
X/1
12%
4.29
X/2
11%
8.49
X/X
11%
4.98
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
10%
6.71
2/X EV+ ✗
12%
15.3
Value flag · 2/X at 15.3 — our 12% vs market 3.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.6pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.9pp
26%
Away Win
23%
+3.6pp
46%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.6pp
54%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
51%
+3.5pp
45%
BTTS No
49%
-3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ajax v AZ Alkmaar — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 26%
+0% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +8%
2.02/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.23/1.17
-8% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +29% / +9%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
404 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 73%
33.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
21.3 Crosses 12.0
1.4 Yellow Cards 2.3

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
0W-1D-5L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.15 xG 1.53
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 3
489 Passes 327
87% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.01.2025 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOK
08.12.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
25.02.2024 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-0 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
08.10.2023 Ajax Ajax 1-2 HT 0-1 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
06.05.2023 Ajax Ajax 0-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar HOL
18.09.2022 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 2-1 HT 2-1 Ajax Ajax HOL

Ajax 2-2 AZ Alkmaar — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-2
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
2.30 xG 0.75
54% Ball Possession 46%
17 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
464 Passes 380
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 17
12 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax and AZ Alkmaar couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Ajax had 54% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 46%, shots finished 17-6, expected goals 2.30 to 0.75.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, AZ Alkmaar led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ajax and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar.

What was the final score of Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

Ajax 2-2 AZ Alkmaar in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Ajax 46%, draw 28%, AZ Alkmaar 26%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Ajax) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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