Roasso Kumamoto 1-3 Montedio Yamagata — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.6
No
50%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.63
2-3 Goals
42%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
10.05
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.63 — our 27% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
11%
X/2
15%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+1.3pp
25%
Draw
27%
-1.1pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.5pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roasso Kumamoto EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 40%
-10% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +5%
1.33/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.17
+10% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / -2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
363 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 353 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.5 Crosses 19.6
1.1 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roasso Kumamoto
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
414 Passes 393
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
28 Crosses 14
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.10.2024 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 1-0 HT 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
26.05.2024 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 0-1 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
19.08.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 2-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
28.05.2023 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 0-3 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
06.11.2022 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 2-2 HT 1-2 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
10.07.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-1 HT 0-1 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roasso Kumamoto
1-3
AWAY Montedio Yamagata
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 2
413 Passes 409
84% Pass Accuracy 81%
22 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Roasso Kumamoto vs Montedio Yamagata
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata saw off Roasso Kumamoto 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 25% / 36%) promised a tight game; Montedio Yamagata found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Roasso Kumamoto had 51% of the ball to Montedio Yamagata's 49%, shots finished 12-14.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Roasso Kumamoto and 1.50 for Montedio Yamagata.

What was the final score of Roasso Kumamoto vs Montedio Yamagata?

Roasso Kumamoto 1-3 Montedio Yamagata in the Japan - J2 League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roasso Kumamoto vs Montedio Yamagata?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roasso Kumamoto win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Roasso Kumamoto 38%, draw 25%, Montedio Yamagata 36%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Roasso Kumamoto) ✗ Under 2.5
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