Montedio Yamagata 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.33
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
39%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.03
Over 2.5
51%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.6
No
48%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
23%
3.85
2-3 Goals
41%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.19
6+ Goals
11%
10.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.85 — our 23% vs market 20.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
13%
X/2
10%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
22%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-1.0pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.7pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+4.8pp
49%
Under 2.5
45%
+3.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
55%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.6pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Montedio Yamagata EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto EU Bookmakers 37%
-1% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +2%
1.31/0.97 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.09
-1% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +45% / +2%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
375 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 275 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Montedio Yamagata
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
506 Passes 335
1 Yellow Cards 1
26.05.2024 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 0-1 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
19.08.2023 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 2-0 HT 2-0 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
28.05.2023 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 0-3 HT 0-0 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
06.11.2022 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 2-2 HT 1-2 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
10.07.2022 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata 0-1 HT 0-1 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto JAP2
27.02.2022 Roasso Kumamoto Roasso Kumamoto 0-3 HT 0-2 Montedio Yamagata Montedio Yamagata JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Montedio Yamagata
1-0
AWAY Roasso Kumamoto
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
280 Passes 492
81% Pass Accuracy 89%
14 Crosses 28
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Montedio Yamagata vs Roasso Kumamoto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montedio Yamagata edged past Roasso Kumamoto 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 39%) promised a tight game; Montedio Yamagata found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Montedio Yamagata had 38% of the ball to Roasso Kumamoto's 62%, shots finished 9-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montedio Yamagata had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Montedio Yamagata and 0.50 for Roasso Kumamoto.

What was the final score of Montedio Yamagata vs Roasso Kumamoto?

Montedio Yamagata 1-0 Roasso Kumamoto in the Japan - J2 League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Montedio Yamagata vs Roasso Kumamoto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Roasso Kumamoto win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Montedio Yamagata 38%, draw 23%, Roasso Kumamoto 39%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Roasso Kumamoto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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