V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 Kagoshima United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 27 Oct 2024

📅27/10/2024 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
26%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.18
Over 2.5
49%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.63
No
52%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.36
2-3 Goals
35%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
10%
8.83
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.36 — our 30% vs market 18.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
8%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
11%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.3pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.8pp
26%
Away Win
22%
+4.1pp
51%
Under 2.5
42%
+8.5pp
49%
Over 2.5
58%
-8.5pp
48%
BTTS Yes
57%
-9.4pp
52%
BTTS No
43%
+9.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Kagoshima United EU Bookmakers 25%
+3% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -22%
2.13/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.60/1.69
+23% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -42% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
361 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 295 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
13.6 Crosses 21.5
0.8 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
3W-0D-0L
AWAY Kagoshima United
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 5
0 Yellow Cards 1
18.05.2024 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 0-3 HT 0-1 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
01.06.2022 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki 1-0 HT 1-0 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United JPK
27.07.2019 Kagoshima United Kagoshima United 1-2 HT 0-2 V-Varen Nagasaki V-Varen Nagasaki JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME V-Varen Nagasaki
4-1
AWAY Kagoshima United
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 8
426 Passes 244
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Crosses 22
POST-MATCH V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kagoshima United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

V-Varen Nagasaki cruised past Kagoshima United 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had V-Varen Nagasaki as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, V-Varen Nagasaki had 59% of the ball to Kagoshima United's 41%, shots finished 12-8.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, V-Varen Nagasaki had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for V-Varen Nagasaki and 0.33 for Kagoshima United.

What was the final score of V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kagoshima United?

V-Varen Nagasaki 4-1 Kagoshima United in the Japan - J2 League on 27/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for V-Varen Nagasaki vs Kagoshima United?

Before kick-off our model rated a V-Varen Nagasaki win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split V-Varen Nagasaki 51%, draw 23%, Kagoshima United 26%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (V-Varen Nagasaki) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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