Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 Kyoto Sanga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒07:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
33%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.82
No
54%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
2.73
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.99
6+ Goals
9%
18.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.73 — our 31% vs market 29.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.23
1/2
10%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.9
X/1
14%
5.01
X/2
12%
6.54
X/X
13%
4.12
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
11%
4.88
2/X
6%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-2.0pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.2pp
33%
Away Win
30%
+3.2pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.2pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.3pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Kyoto Sanga EU Bookmakers 33%
-8% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / -4%
1.32/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.64
+5% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / -24%
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
339 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 372 · 78%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
17.9 Crosses 16.9
0.9 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.00 xG 0.89
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
252 Passes 278
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 20
20 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 2
10.07.2024 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 3-1 HT 0-1 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JPK
27.08.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
22.06.2022 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 HT 0-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JPK
14.05.2022 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 0-0 HT 0-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
16.10.2010 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse 1-1 HT 1-0 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga JAP
05.05.2010 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 2-4 HT 2-0 Shimizu S-Pulse Shimizu S-Pulse JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Shimizu S-Pulse
1-2
AWAY Kyoto Sanga
1.67 xG 2.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
354 Passes 240
76% Pass Accuracy 68%
33 Box Touches 21
20 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kyoto Sanga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Kyoto Sanga squeezed past Shimizu S-Pulse 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Kyoto Sanga made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Shimizu S-Pulse had 57% of the ball to Kyoto Sanga's 43%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.67 to 2.43.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Shimizu S-Pulse and 1.17 for Kyoto Sanga.

What was the final score of Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kyoto Sanga?

Shimizu S-Pulse 1-2 Kyoto Sanga in the Japan - J1 League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Shimizu S-Pulse vs Kyoto Sanga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Shimizu S-Pulse win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Shimizu S-Pulse 40%, draw 27%, Kyoto Sanga 33%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Shimizu S-Pulse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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