Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 4-0 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
74%
1.28
Draw
17%
5.28
Away
9%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.95
No
59%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
30%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
56%
1/2
3%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
2%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
4%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
74%
Home Win
74%
-0.0pp
17%
Draw
16%
+0.9pp
9%
Away Win
10%
-0.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
47%
-6.2pp
59%
BTTS No
53%
+6.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Leones Negros Udeg EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca EU Bookmakers 12%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -2%
2.78/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/2.46
+36% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -23%
57% Ball Possession 43%
15 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
328 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 238 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Leones Negros Udeg
2W-4D-0L
AWAY Alebrijes de Oaxaca
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
30.09.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 HT 2-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
15.02.2024 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 0-3 HT 0-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
04.08.2023 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 5-0 HT 4-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
16.03.2023 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 2-2 HT 0-0 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
26.06.2022 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg 0-0 HT 0-0 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca MEK2
20.01.2022 Alebrijes de Oaxaca Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1-1 HT 1-1 Leones Negros Udeg Leones Negros Udeg MEK2
POST-MATCH Leones Negros Udeg vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Leones Negros Udeg squeezed past Alebrijes de Oaxaca 3-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Leones Negros Udeg as the likeliest winner at 74%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (55%) landed while no to both teams scoring (59%) missed.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Leones Negros Udeg had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Leones Negros Udeg and 0.83 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca.

What was the final score of Leones Negros Udeg vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Leones Negros Udeg 3-2 Alebrijes de Oaxaca in the Mexico - Primera A on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Leones Negros Udeg vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca?

Before kick-off our model rated a Leones Negros Udeg win the most likely single outcome at about 74%, with the full match-result split Leones Negros Udeg 74%, draw 17%, Alebrijes de Oaxaca 9%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Leones Negros Udeg) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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