Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 16 Mar 2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-1 HT 1-1
Lech Poznan
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.47
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
31%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.0
Over 2.5
50%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.61
2-3 Goals
43%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.04
6+ Goals
10%
10.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
3.8
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X EV+ ✗
13%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.99
X/2
9%
5.73
X/X
9%
4.91
2/1
6%
27.0
2/2
15%
3.56
2/X
5%
12.4
Value flag · 1/X at 12.5 — our 13% vs market 5.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
37%
+5.7pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
31%
Away Win
37%
-6.0pp
50%
Under 2.5
46%
+3.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
54%
-4.0pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-5.6pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Jagiellonia Bialystok v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 40%
+8% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
1.42/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.32
+38% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
348 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 373 · 82%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
15.8 Crosses 17.2
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
0W-1D-5L
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.83
0.78 xG 1.90
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
315 Passes 392
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 25
12 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
14.09.2024 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 5-0 HT 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
17.02.2024 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
24.10.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-3 HT 2-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
27.05.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
12.11.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
19.03.2022 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 0-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Jagiellonia Bialystok
2-1
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.44 xG 1.21
30% Ball Possession 70%
11 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 2
0 Corners 4
155 Passes 433
70% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 20
11 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Jagiellonia Bialystok squeezed past Lech Poznan 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Jagiellonia Bialystok as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Jagiellonia Bialystok had 30% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 70%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.44 to 1.21.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 2.83 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan?

Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Jagiellonia Bialystok win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Jagiellonia Bialystok 42%, draw 27%, Lech Poznan 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Jagiellonia Bialystok) ✓ BTTS Yes
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