Rakow Czestochowa 3-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 16 Mar 2025

Rakow Czestochowa
3-2 HT 2-0
Legia Varşova
📅16/03/2025 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
30%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.68
Over 2.5
47%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.63
2-3 Goals
39%
1.71
4-5 Goals
22%
3.98
6+ Goals
12%
19.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.75
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.65
X/1
16%
4.48
X/2
9%
7.43
X/X
11%
4.25
2/1
7%
27.0
2/2
13%
5.98
2/X
11%
14.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
47%
-5.0pp
28%
Draw
27%
+0.8pp
30%
Away Win
26%
+4.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
56%
-2.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
44%
+2.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rakow Czestochowa v Legia Varşova — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 29%
-10% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.69/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.24/1.58
-23% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +32% / -28%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.6
14.6 Crosses 18.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.6

Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Legia Varşova
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.78 xG 1.15
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
302 Passes 372
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
20 Box Touches 18
11 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
15.09.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-1 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
13.04.2024 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 1-1 HT 0-1 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova POL
08.10.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 1-2 HT 1-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
15.07.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 0-0 HT 0-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova PLS
02.05.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-0 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POLK
01.04.2023 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 3-1 HT 2-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL

Rakow Czestochowa 3-2 Legia Varşova — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
3-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.41 xG 1.67
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 7
7 Corners 5
300 Passes 326
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
20 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa nicked a narrow win over Legia Varşova 3-2. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 49% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 51%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 2.41 to 1.67.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.83 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova?

Rakow Czestochowa 3-2 Legia Varşova in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 42%, draw 28%, Legia Varşova 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ Under 2.5
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