Uniao De Leiria 3-1 Mafra — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.8
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.68
Over 2.5
41%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.96
No
56%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.61
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
18%
4.01
6+ Goals
8%
19.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.61 — our 33% vs market 30.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
21%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
11%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
52%
-3.9pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.4pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+3.3pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-3.3pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.1pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Mafra EU Bookmakers 24%
-1% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -9%
1.40/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/1.53
+0% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -1%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
269 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
20.1 Crosses 16.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
0W-0D-3L
AWAY Mafra
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
1.27 xG 1.94
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 13
1 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 3
321 Passes 314
79% Pass Accuracy 79%
19 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.10.2024 Mafra Mafra 2-1 HT 1-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
02.03.2024 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria 2-3 HT 2-0 Mafra Mafra POR2
08.10.2023 Mafra Mafra 3-0 HT 2-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
3-1
AWAY Mafra
3.24 xG 1.94
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 2
309 Passes 258
79% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Mafra
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria beat Mafra 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Uniao De Leiria as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 53% of the ball to Mafra's 47%, shots finished 18-11, expected goals 3.24 to 1.94.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Mafra led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Uniao De Leiria and 2.67 for Mafra.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Mafra?

Uniao De Leiria 3-1 Mafra in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Mafra?

Before kick-off our model rated a Uniao De Leiria win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 48%, draw 27%, Mafra 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Uniao De Leiria) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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