Vizela 2-1 Paços De Ferreira — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.97
Over 2.5
53%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.37
2-3 Goals
40%
1.75
4-5 Goals
24%
3.18
6+ Goals
12%
11.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
6%
1/X
10%
X/1
16%
X/2
7%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
11%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
61%
-8.2pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.5pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Vizela EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Paços De Ferreira EU Bookmakers 20%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
1.83/0.91 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.26/1.50
-1% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% / +8%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
361 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 297 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.5 Crosses 20.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Vizela
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.60 xG 1.43
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 8
316 Passes 296
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
25.10.2024 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-1 HT 0-1 Vizela Vizela POR2
27.07.2024 Vizela Vizela 2-0 HT 1-0 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira HAZ
29.04.2023 Vizela Vizela 1-2 HT 0-2 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira POR
13.11.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 0-2 HT 0-0 Vizela Vizela POR
30.07.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 1-2 HT 0-1 Vizela Vizela HAZ
19.02.2022 Paços De Ferreira Paços De Ferreira 2-1 HT 1-1 Vizela Vizela POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Vizela
2-1
AWAY Paços De Ferreira
2.45 xG 1.64
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 3
340 Passes 260
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
23 Crosses 19
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Vizela vs Paços De Ferreira
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Vizela edged past Paços De Ferreira 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Vizela as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Vizela had 55% of the ball to Paços De Ferreira's 45%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 2.45 to 1.64.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Vizela had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Vizela and 1.00 for Paços De Ferreira.

What was the final score of Vizela vs Paços De Ferreira?

Vizela 2-1 Paços De Ferreira in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Vizela vs Paços De Ferreira?

Before kick-off our model rated a Vizela win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Vizela 53%, draw 24%, Paços De Ferreira 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Vizela), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Vizela) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
16 Mar 2025
14:00 Tondela vs Benfica II Analysis →
17:00 Uniao De Leiria vs Mafra Analysis →
18:30 Porto II vs Leixoes Analysis →