Backa Topola 4-2 Napredak Krusevac — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Serbia - Super League, 16 Mar 2025

📅16/03/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.47
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
22%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
4%
1/X
5%
X/1
25%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
64%
-6.5pp
20%
Draw
21%
-0.1pp
22%
Away Win
16%
+6.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+5.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-5.9pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.6pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+6.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Backa Topola EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Napredak Krusevac EU Bookmakers 19%
-13% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
2.10/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.41
+5% / -2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -1%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
439 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 252 · 74%
31.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
25.3 Crosses 15.6
1.9 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Backa Topola
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Napredak Krusevac
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
2.21 xG 0.66
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
449 Passes 220
83% Pass Accuracy 71%
31 Box Touches 11
21 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.10.2024 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-3 HT 0-2 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
23.05.2024 Backa Topola Backa Topola 6-0 HT 2-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
07.03.2024 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-0 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
22.12.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 1-1 HT 1-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
11.02.2023 Backa Topola Backa Topola 2-0 HT 2-0 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac SIRP
13.08.2022 Napredak Krusevac Napredak Krusevac 0-0 HT 0-0 Backa Topola Backa Topola SIRP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Backa Topola
4-2
AWAY Napredak Krusevac
2.26 xG 1.68
65% Ball Possession 35%
7 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
455 Passes 208
84% Pass Accuracy 73%
28 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Backa Topola vs Napredak Krusevac
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Backa Topola saw off Napredak Krusevac 4-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Backa Topola as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Backa Topola had 65% of the ball to Napredak Krusevac's 35%, shots finished 7-14, expected goals 2.26 to 1.68.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Backa Topola had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Backa Topola and 0.17 for Napredak Krusevac.

What was the final score of Backa Topola vs Napredak Krusevac?

Backa Topola 4-2 Napredak Krusevac in the Serbia - Super League on 16/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Backa Topola vs Napredak Krusevac?

Before kick-off our model rated a Backa Topola win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Backa Topola 57%, draw 20%, Napredak Krusevac 22%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Backa Topola) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Backa Topola) ✗ BTTS No
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