Tacoma Defiance 2-1 Oakland Roots — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Open Cup, 16 Apr 2025

📅16/04/2025 · 🕒05:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.27
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
29%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes OUR CALL
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
29%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
BTTS Yes — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
40%
+6.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.5pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-4.6pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.1pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Tacoma Defiance EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Oakland Roots EU Bookmakers 37%
+47% / +47% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+18% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 80%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
23.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Tacoma Defiance
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Oakland Roots
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.22 xG 1.22
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
368 Passes 380
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
21.10.2021 Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance 0-0 HT 0-0 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
16.09.2021 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 3-1 HT 2-1 Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance USLP
29.08.2021 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots 3-1 HT 1-1 Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance USLP
08.08.2021 Tacoma Defiance Tacoma Defiance 3-1 HT 3-0 Oakland Roots Oakland Roots USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Tacoma Defiance
2-1
AWAY Oakland Roots
0.66 xG 1.62
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 8
3 Corners 9
420 Passes 471
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 29
10 Crosses 41
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Tacoma Defiance vs Oakland Roots
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tacoma Defiance nicked a narrow win over Oakland Roots 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Tacoma Defiance as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Tacoma Defiance had 47% of the ball to Oakland Roots's 53%, shots finished 8-22, expected goals 0.66 to 1.62 — on chances, Oakland Roots could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Oakland Roots led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Tacoma Defiance and 1.75 for Oakland Roots.

What was the final score of Tacoma Defiance vs Oakland Roots?

Tacoma Defiance 2-1 Oakland Roots in the USA - Open Cup on 16/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Tacoma Defiance vs Oakland Roots?

Before kick-off our model rated a Tacoma Defiance win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Tacoma Defiance 46%, draw 25%, Oakland Roots 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Tacoma Defiance), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Tacoma Defiance) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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