Sportfreunde Lotte 2-2 Fortuna Köln — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Regional League, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.99
Draw
21%
3.72
Away
51%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
2.29
Over 2.5
45%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.43
No
50%
2.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
8%
1/X
4%
X/1
10%
X/2
24%
X/X
8%
2/1
8%
2/2
20%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
29%
-1.4pp
21%
Draw
23%
-2.4pp
52%
Away Win
48%
+3.8pp
55%
Under 2.5
40%
+14.8pp
45%
Over 2.5
60%
-14.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
66%
-15.8pp
50%
BTTS No
34%
+15.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportfreunde Lotte EU Bookmakers 33%
Head to Head
AWAY Fortuna Köln EU Bookmakers 52%
+8% / -2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +9% / +15%
1.30/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.84/0.83
-5% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +49%
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
330 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 411 · 84%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sportfreunde Lotte
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Fortuna Köln
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
1 Yellow Cards 2
29.11.2025 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 4-0 HT 3-0 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
08.03.2025 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 1-1 HT 1-0 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
21.09.2024 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte 1-1 HT 0-0 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln ALMBÖL
14.05.2022 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 2-1 HT 1-0 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
15.02.2022 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte 1-2 HT 0-1 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln ALMBÖL
27.02.2021 Fortuna Köln Fortuna Köln 2-2 HT 1-0 Sportfreunde Lotte Sportfreunde Lotte ALMBÖL
POST-MATCH Sportfreunde Lotte vs Fortuna Köln
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sportfreunde Lotte and Fortuna Köln couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fortuna Köln at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortuna Köln led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sportfreunde Lotte and 2.00 for Fortuna Köln.

What was the final score of Sportfreunde Lotte vs Fortuna Köln?

Sportfreunde Lotte 2-2 Fortuna Köln in the Germany - Regional League on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportfreunde Lotte vs Fortuna Köln?

Before kick-off our model rated an Fortuna Köln win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Sportfreunde Lotte 28%, draw 21%, Fortuna Köln 52%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fortuna Köln) ✗ Under 2.5
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