Hillerod 1-1 Esbjerg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark 1st Division, 16 May 2026

📅16/05/2026 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
31%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.9
Over 2.5
53%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.68
No
47%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
3.21
2-3 Goals
36%
1.73
4-5 Goals
26%
3.29
6+ Goals
10%
12.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.46
1/2
6%
29.0
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
14%
5.43
X/2
10%
5.98
X/X
9%
4.64
2/1
7%
26.5
2/2
15%
4.02
2/X EV+ ✗
10%
12.85
Value flag · 2/X at 12.85 — our 10% vs market 4.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+4.2pp
26%
Draw
27%
-1.4pp
31%
Away Win
34%
-2.7pp
47%
Under 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.0pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hillerod EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Esbjerg EU Bookmakers 37%
+11% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -12%
1.30/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/1.76
-3% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / -41%
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
381 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 73%
18.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.4
14.6 Crosses 19.6
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hillerod
1W-3D-1L
AWAY Esbjerg
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
2.26 xG 0.95
60% Ball Possession 40%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
475 Passes 289
84% Pass Accuracy 75%
29 Box Touches 23
20 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
17.04.2026 Esbjerg Esbjerg 0-0 HT 0-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
15.03.2026 Esbjerg Esbjerg 2-2 HT 2-0 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
14.09.2025 Hillerod Hillerod 3-0 HT 2-0 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
24.11.2024 Hillerod Hillerod 1-2 HT 0-2 Esbjerg Esbjerg DAN1
29.09.2024 Esbjerg Esbjerg 1-1 HT 1-1 Hillerod Hillerod DAN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hillerod
1-1
AWAY Esbjerg
2.26 xG 3.23
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 10
320 Passes 297
75% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 33
POST-MATCH Hillerod vs Esbjerg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hillerod and Esbjerg couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Hillerod at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Hillerod had 51% of the ball to Esbjerg's 49%, shots finished 10-16, expected goals 2.26 to 3.23.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for Hillerod and 1.00 for Esbjerg.

What was the final score of Hillerod vs Esbjerg?

Hillerod 1-1 Esbjerg in the Denmark 1st Division on 16/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hillerod vs Esbjerg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hillerod win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Hillerod 43%, draw 26%, Esbjerg 31%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Hillerod), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Hillerod) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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