Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Sao Paulo v Coritiba — Team-Based Signals
Sao Paulo vs Coritiba Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 2-1
Coritiba
BR1
1-1
HT 1-0
Sao Paulo
BR1
3-1
HT 1-0
Coritiba
BR1
1-1
HT 0-1
Sao Paulo
BR1
1-1
HT 0-0
Coritiba
BR1
Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba — Actual Match Statistics
Sao Paulo and Coritiba shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Sao Paulo at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, shots finished 19-7, expected goals 1.12 to 0.41.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.83 for Coritiba.
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Sao Paulo 1-1 Coritiba in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Coritiba?
Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 50%, draw 29%, Coritiba 20%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sao Paulo), BTTS No went the other way.