Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Bragantino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 16 Aug 2026

📅16/08/2026 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
23%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
56%
1.67
Over
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.9
No
48%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1
31%
2.66
2-3
43%
1.75
4-5
18%
4.16
6+
8%
20.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.79
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.35
X/1
21%
4.59
X/2
8%
7.59
X/X
13%
4.13
2/1
8%
27.5
2/2
9%
6.08
2/X
6%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win Under 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
46%
+4.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
22%
Away Win
26%
-3.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.2pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Bragantino EU Bookmakers 29%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +8%
1.51/0.92 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.26
+6% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / +8%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
336 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 317 · 79%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
20.6 Crosses 18.9
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atletico Paranaense
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Bragantino
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.66 xG 1.30
47% Ball Possession 53%
18 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
270 Passes 308
76% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 3
26.02.2026 Bragantino Bragantino 1-1 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
06.12.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-2 HT 0-1 Bragantino Bragantino BR1
08.08.2024 Bragantino Bragantino 2-3 HT 0-1 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BRK
01.08.2024 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-0 HT 2-0 Bragantino Bragantino BRK
22.07.2024 Bragantino Bragantino 1-0 HT 1-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
09.10.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 1-1 Bragantino Bragantino BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atletico Paranaense
1-1
AWAY Bragantino
2.63 xG 1.25
20 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
398 Passes 383
36 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 18
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Paranaense and Bragantino shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Atletico Paranaense at 50%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, shots finished 20-16, expected goals 2.63 to 1.25.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.17 for Bragantino.

What was the final score of Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino?

Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Bragantino in the Brazil - Serie A on 16/08/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atletico Paranaense vs Bragantino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atletico Paranaense win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Atletico Paranaense 50%, draw 27%, Bragantino 22%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atletico Paranaense) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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