Pineto 3-1 Perugia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.67
Draw
25%
2.88
Away
42%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.51
Over 2.5
39%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.03
No
58%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.81
4-5 Goals
17%
5.42
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
11%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
34%
-0.7pp
26%
Draw
31%
-5.4pp
42%
Away Win
36%
+6.1pp
61%
Under 2.5
62%
-1.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
38%
+1.9pp
42%
BTTS Yes
45%
-3.4pp
58%
BTTS No
55%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pineto EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Perugia EU Bookmakers 39%
-14% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -8%
1.19/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.02/1.48
+2% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / -25%
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
254 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pineto
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Perugia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
2 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Pineto Pineto 0-2 HT 0-2 Perugia Perugia İTCK
23.03.2024 Perugia Perugia 2-2 HT 0-0 Pineto Pineto İTC
18.11.2023 Pineto Pineto 1-1 HT 0-1 Perugia Perugia İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pineto
3-1
AWAY Perugia
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pineto vs Perugia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pineto got the better of Perugia 3-1.

Our pre-match lean was Perugia at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pineto had 49% of the ball to Perugia's 51%, shots finished 15-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Perugia led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Pineto and 1.67 for Perugia.

What was the final score of Pineto vs Perugia?

Pineto 3-1 Perugia in the Italy - Serie C on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pineto vs Perugia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Pineto 33%, draw 26%, Perugia 42%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Perugia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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