Pontedera 1-2 Pianese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 16 Nov 2024

📅16/11/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.19
Draw
26%
3.11
Away
35%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.74
Over 2.5
44%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
35%
2.97
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
20%
4.03
6+ Goals
8%
18.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.97 — our 35% vs market 28.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
17%
X/X
13%
2/1
5%
2/2
12%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
29%
-2.2pp
35%
Away Win
30%
+5.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
54%
+2.5pp
44%
Over 2.5
46%
-2.5pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-5.2pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+5.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pontedera EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Pianese EU Bookmakers 33%
+6% / +9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -6%
1.40/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.68/1.40
+15% / +8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +56% / -18%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
328 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 324 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pontedera
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Pianese
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 19
2 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 8
0 Yellow Cards 2
10.08.2024 Pontedera Pontedera 1-0 HT 0-0 Pianese Pianese İTCK
07.12.2019 Pianese Pianese 1-2 HT 0-1 Pontedera Pontedera İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pontedera
1-2
AWAY Pianese
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pontedera vs Pianese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pianese nicked a narrow win over Pontedera 2-1 away from home.

Our pre-match split (39% / 26% / 35%) promised a tight game; Pianese found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Pontedera had 52% of the ball to Pianese's 48%, shots finished 18-12.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Pontedera had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Pontedera and 0.50 for Pianese.

What was the final score of Pontedera vs Pianese?

Pontedera 1-2 Pianese in the Italy - Serie C on 16/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pontedera vs Pianese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pontedera win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Pontedera 39%, draw 26%, Pianese 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Pontedera) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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