Cambuur 1-0 Excelsior — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Jan 2025

Cambuur
1-0 HT 1-0
Excelsior
📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Netherlands - Eerste Divisie – 2024/2025

Cambuur vs Excelsior Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.27
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
33%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.03
Over 2.5
52%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.56
No
44%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.74
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals
22%
2.98
6+ Goals
14%
9.59
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
3.34
1/2
9%
27.5
1/X
9%
12.2
X/1
16%
5.59
X/2
14%
6.31
X/X
15%
4.96
2/1
7%
24.7
2/2
11%
4.03
2/X
5%
12.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-2.7pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.7pp
33%
Away Win
33%
+0.0pp
48%
Under 2.5
45%
+2.4pp
52%
Over 2.5
55%
-2.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.5pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Cambuur v Excelsior — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cambuur EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Excelsior EU Bookmakers 37%
-12% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
1.05/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/1.73
-30% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +7% / -34%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
331 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 337 · 77%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.9 Crosses 19.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0

Cambuur vs Excelsior Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cambuur
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Excelsior
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.56 xG 1.44
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
366 Passes 236
78% Pass Accuracy 70%
29 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.10.2024 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
19.03.2023 Excelsior Excelsior 4-1 HT 4-0 Cambuur Cambuur HOL
06.08.2022 Cambuur Cambuur 0-2 HT 0-2 Excelsior Excelsior HOL
05.04.2021 Cambuur Cambuur 7-2 HT 1-1 Excelsior Excelsior HOL2
20.12.2020 Excelsior Excelsior 0-1 HT 0-1 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2
22.12.2019 Excelsior Excelsior 1-3 HT 0-2 Cambuur Cambuur HOL2

Cambuur 1-0 Excelsior — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cambuur
1-0
AWAY Excelsior
2.37 xG 0.93
45% Ball Possession 55%
16 Total Shots 14
7 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
261 Passes 352
69% Pass Accuracy 78%
24 Box Touches 26
5 Crosses 21
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cambuur vs Excelsior
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cambuur squeezed past Excelsior 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 29% / 33% — and on the day Cambuur made the difference. The goals read — both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Cambuur had 45% of the ball to Excelsior's 55%, shots finished 16-14, expected goals 2.37 to 0.93 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Cambuur's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cambuur had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Cambuur and 1.50 for Excelsior.

What was the final score of Cambuur vs Excelsior?

Cambuur 1-0 Excelsior in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cambuur vs Excelsior?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cambuur win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Cambuur 38%, draw 29%, Excelsior 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cambuur) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cambuur) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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