VVV-Venlo 1-0 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.29
Draw
27%
3.45
Away
41%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
1.97
Over 2.5
52%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.68
No
46%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
3.44
2-3 Goals
37%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.14
6+ Goals
13%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.45
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
23.0
1/X
7%
14.1
X/1
9%
7.47
X/2
8%
4.66
X/X
14%
5.08
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
25%
2.65
2/X
7%
13.25
Value flag · 1/2 at 23.0 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
27%
+4.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
47%
+0.8pp
52%
Over 2.5
53%
-0.8pp
54%
BTTS Yes
56%
-2.0pp
46%
BTTS No
44%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME VVV-Venlo EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 51%
+3% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -21% / -21%
1.16/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.02
-5% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -59% / -11%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 5
251 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 82%
19.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.3
19.3 Crosses 20.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME VVV-Venlo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Telstar
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.39 xG 1.22
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
357 Passes 306
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
22 Box Touches 21
17 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
15.11.2024 Telstar Telstar 4-0 HT 2-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
22.12.2023 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 2-1 HT 1-1 Telstar Telstar HOL2
09.09.2023 Telstar Telstar 1-2 HT 1-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
21.04.2023 Telstar Telstar 1-0 HT 0-0 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo HOL2
23.09.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 1-1 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
15.04.2022 VVV-Venlo VVV-Venlo 3-2 HT 1-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME VVV-Venlo
1-0
AWAY Telstar
0.79 xG 1.38
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 7
274 Passes 327
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
8 Box Touches 23
10 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH VVV-Venlo vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

VVV-Venlo edged past Telstar 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Telstar at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, VVV-Venlo had 47% of the ball to Telstar's 53%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.79 to 1.38 — on chances, Telstar could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, VVV-Venlo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for VVV-Venlo and 1.67 for Telstar.

What was the final score of VVV-Venlo vs Telstar?

VVV-Venlo 1-0 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for VVV-Venlo vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated an Telstar win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split VVV-Venlo 31%, draw 27%, Telstar 41%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Telstar) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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