ADO Den Haag 3-1 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 17 Jan 2025

📅17/01/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.37
Draw
27%
4.62
Away
19%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.29
Over 2.5
50%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.82
No
52%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.35
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
23%
2.73
6+ Goals
12%
7.53
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.35 — our 26% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.62
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
11%
18.55
X/1
21%
3.84
X/2
7%
15.0
X/X
10%
7.31
2/1
7%
20.45
2/2
6%
12.3
2/X
6%
21.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
69%
-14.3pp
27%
Draw
19%
+8.3pp
19%
Away Win
13%
+5.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
40%
+9.8pp
50%
Over 2.5
60%
-9.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.4pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 16%
-12% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +31%
1.73/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.78
-11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / +13%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 277 · 73%
28.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.3
25.3 Crosses 13.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.31 xG 1.39
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
357 Passes 285
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
28 Box Touches 19
25 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2024 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 0-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
12.04.2024 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 0-1 HT 0-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
01.12.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-2 HT 2-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
28.04.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
28.10.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 1-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
08.04.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
3-1
AWAY Helmond Sport
0.83 xG 1.54
34% Ball Possession 66%
11 Total Shots 17
6 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
143 Passes 389
56% Pass Accuracy 83%
15 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 29
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

ADO Den Haag got the better of Helmond Sport 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had ADO Den Haag as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 34% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 66%, shots finished 11-17, expected goals 0.83 to 1.54 — on chances, Helmond Sport could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.83 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs Helmond Sport?

ADO Den Haag 3-1 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 17/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 54%, draw 27%, Helmond Sport 19%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (ADO Den Haag) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✗ BTTS No
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