ADO Den Haag 0-1 Helmond Sport — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.47
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
21%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.38
Over 2.5
48%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.66
No
52%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
25%
5.08
2-3 Goals
40%
1.96
4-5 Goals
25%
2.74
6+ Goals
10%
7.11
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.08 — our 25% vs market 15.0%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.79
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.6
X/1
22%
3.84
X/2
6%
12.7
X/X
13%
6.83
2/1
7%
20.15
2/2
9%
9.05
2/X
7%
17.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
63%
-10.4pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.7pp
21%
Away Win
16%
+4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
38%
+13.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
62%
-13.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
56%
-8.4pp
52%
BTTS No
44%
+8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME ADO Den Haag EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Helmond Sport EU Bookmakers 20%
-5% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +21%
1.63/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.88/1.41
+6% / -8% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
378 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 268 · 72%
29.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.1
23.9 Crosses 14.7
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME ADO Den Haag
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.40 Avg Goals (FT) 1.60
0.99 xG 1.06
57% Ball Possession 43%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
411 Passes 288
80% Pass Accuracy 73%
26 Box Touches 17
25 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.12.2023 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 3-2 HT 2-1 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
28.04.2023 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-2 HT 0-1 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
28.10.2022 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 2-1 HT 1-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
08.04.2022 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag 2-1 HT 1-0 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport HOL2
15.10.2021 Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 0-0 HT 0-0 ADO Den Haag ADO Den Haag HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME ADO Den Haag
0-1
AWAY Helmond Sport
1.11 xG 0.94
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 1
9 Corners 3
292 Passes 271
80% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 13
34 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH ADO Den Haag vs Helmond Sport
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Helmond Sport nicked a narrow win over ADO Den Haag 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was ADO Den Haag at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, ADO Den Haag had 53% of the ball to Helmond Sport's 47%, shots finished 16-5, expected goals 1.11 to 0.94.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Helmond Sport led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.40 goals for ADO Den Haag and 1.60 for Helmond Sport.

What was the final score of ADO Den Haag vs Helmond Sport?

ADO Den Haag 0-1 Helmond Sport in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for ADO Den Haag vs Helmond Sport?

Before kick-off our model rated a ADO Den Haag win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split ADO Den Haag 53%, draw 26%, Helmond Sport 21%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (ADO Den Haag) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (ADO Den Haag) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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