Willem II 4-1 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.49
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
22%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.51
Over 2.5
54%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.61
No
50%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
5.39
2-3 Goals
39%
2.0
4-5 Goals
25%
2.68
6+ Goals
11%
6.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1.81
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
16.4
X/1
23%
3.9
X/2
8%
12.25
X/X
8%
7.01
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
19.65
2/2
9%
8.5
2/X
5%
16.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.65 — our 9% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
63%
-5.8pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.6pp
22%
Away Win
18%
+4.1pp
46%
Under 2.5
36%
+10.3pp
54%
Over 2.5
64%
-10.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
58%
-8.2pp
50%
BTTS No
42%
+8.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Willem II EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 21%
-6% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -8%
1.98/0.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.05/1.66
+7% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / -4%
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
376 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 74%
24.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
25.1 Crosses 10.0
1.3 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Willem II
2W-1D-0L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.26 xG 0.35
40% Ball Possession 60%
14 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
299 Passes 500
77% Pass Accuracy 84%
20 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 1
29.09.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-2 HT 0-1 Willem II Willem II HOL2
06.03.2023 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-2 HT 0-2 Willem II Willem II HOL2
16.09.2022 Willem II Willem II 1-0 HT 0-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Willem II
4-1
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.37 xG 0.78
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 16
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
204 Passes 390
72% Pass Accuracy 83%
20 Box Touches 16
14 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Willem II cruised past AZ Alkmaar II 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Willem II as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Willem II had 38% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 62%, shots finished 14-16, expected goals 1.37 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Willem II had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Willem II and 0.67 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Willem II 4-1 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Willem II vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Willem II win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Willem II 57%, draw 21%, AZ Alkmaar II 22%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Willem II), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Willem II) ✓ Over 2.5
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