De Graafschap 5-1 Telstar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
24%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
5.09
2-3 Goals
39%
1.96
4-5 Goals
23%
2.74
6+ Goals
12%
7.07
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.95
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
12%
4.0
X/2
9%
10.85
X/X
7%
6.59
2/1
11%
19.85
2/2
8%
7.5
2/X
9%
15.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-6.1pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.3pp
24%
Away Win
19%
+4.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.6pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.6pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.7pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Telstar EU Bookmakers 22%
-5% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -8%
1.86/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.96/1.44
-17% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +6%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
396 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 78%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.8
26.5 Crosses 17.4
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Telstar
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.31 xG 0.99
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
308 Passes 319
74% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
10.11.2023 Telstar Telstar 1-2 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
03.02.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-1 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
01.09.2022 Telstar Telstar 0-1 HT 0-0 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
04.02.2022 Telstar Telstar 0-3 HT 0-3 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
14.11.2021 De Graafschap De Graafschap 1-1 HT 0-0 Telstar Telstar HOL2
12.03.2021 Telstar Telstar 1-2 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
5-1
AWAY Telstar
2.62 xG 0.56
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 7
297 Passes 215
75% Pass Accuracy 69%
24 Box Touches 15
29 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Telstar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap swept aside Telstar 5-1. Half-time: 2-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, De Graafschap had 56% of the ball to Telstar's 44%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 2.62 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for De Graafschap and 0.67 for Telstar.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Telstar?

De Graafschap 5-1 Telstar in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Telstar?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 53%, draw 23%, Telstar 24%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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