Emmen 1-3 MVV Maastricht — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
1.64
Draw
28%
3.94
Away
24%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.59
Over 2.5
50%
1.45
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.49
No
51%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
5.8
2-3 Goals
40%
2.04
4-5 Goals
23%
2.61
6+ Goals
10%
6.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.8 — our 27% vs market 12.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.08
1/2
8%
34.5
1/X
5%
14.05
X/1
11%
4.33
X/2
6%
9.9
X/X
15%
6.53
2/1
11%
19.55
2/2
10%
6.41
2/X
7%
14.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
57%
-8.2pp
27%
Draw
22%
+5.5pp
24%
Away Win
21%
+2.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
35%
+15.5pp
50%
Over 2.5
65%
-15.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
63%
-13.7pp
51%
BTTS No
37%
+13.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Emmen EU Bookmakers 61%
Head to Head
AWAY MVV Maastricht EU Bookmakers 25%
-10% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +14%
1.52/0.93 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.72
-11% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -10%
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
391 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.7
29.0 Crosses 15.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Emmen
4W-2D-0L
AWAY MVV Maastricht
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.96 xG 0.23
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
449 Passes 329
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
34 Box Touches 9
16 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
06.11.2023 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 1-1 HT 1-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
17.12.2021 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-0 Emmen Emmen HOL2
10.09.2021 Emmen Emmen 7-1 HT 3-1 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
02.04.2018 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 0-1 HT 0-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
27.11.2017 Emmen Emmen 2-1 HT 2-0 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht HOL2
14.04.2017 MVV Maastricht MVV Maastricht 2-2 HT 0-1 Emmen Emmen HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Emmen
1-3
AWAY MVV Maastricht
0.59 xG 0.99
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 4
329 Passes 352
71% Pass Accuracy 74%
17 Box Touches 9
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Emmen vs MVV Maastricht
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

MVV Maastricht beat Emmen 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Emmen at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Emmen had 50% of the ball to MVV Maastricht's 50%, shots finished 9-14, expected goals 0.59 to 0.99.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Emmen had the better of it with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Emmen and 0.83 for MVV Maastricht.

What was the final score of Emmen vs MVV Maastricht?

Emmen 1-3 MVV Maastricht in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Emmen vs MVV Maastricht?

Before kick-off our model rated a Emmen win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Emmen 48%, draw 27%, MVV Maastricht 24%. The final score 1-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Emmen) ✗ BTTS No
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